Presenting a revolutionary approach to developing strategic vision in business and in life, a guide for managers, entrepreneurs, and investors explains how to apply creative and intuitive skills to corporate practices Reprint.
The Art Of The Long View Planning For The Future In An Uncertain World Presenting a revolutionary approach to developing strategic vision in business and in life a guide for managers entrepreneurs and investors explains how to apply creative and intuitive skills to co
I ve been calling myself a futurist for the past five years, and for five years, I ve been lying But no longer, because I ve read this book, which is every bit as a thought provoking as Science Fiction for Prototyping proved disappointing Peter Schwartz is one of the founders of the Global Business Network consulting firm, and honed his skills designing scenarios for Shell Oil in the 1980s In The Art of the Long View, he makes a strong case for the utility of scenario planning, explains how to d [...]
It s easy for a book published in 1991 to feel dated, especially when the second last chapter of the book is titled The World in 2005 Three Scenarios and when the book references Mikhail Gorbachev But Chapter 9 aside, The Art of the Long View is still a very relevant read for anyone looking at the medium to long term and wondering how they can position themselves and their organisations to meet future challenges More so in these volatile times when it seems that we re not just confronted by evol [...]
I had major reservations about this book at first I ve been deeply steeped in books like Thinking Fast and Slow book show 1 and Think Twice book show 6 that warn about the dangers of our intuition and our penchant for developing a coherent narrative As I continued, the author emphasized the need to develop multiple scenarios and avoid latching on to one of them as your official or favorite prediction He gave pretty solid guidance on how to develop the scenarios and develop warning signs to hint [...]
A bit like Good Strategy Bad Strategy in that it is fairly straightforward and discusses standard corporate planning and strategy fare Again, nothing too earth shattering, though to someone not familiar with this sort of scenario based planning, it is a great introduction For the advanced reader or practitioner, it still has value insofar as it simplifies and codifies what good scenario based planning is all about better decision making The most valuable insight in Schwartz s book is that the e [...]
Shows its age, but well worth reading, sold on scenario building.I m reviewing the 1996 edition.What the book does well It s a great sales pitch for the concept of scenario building I m sold on the idea.It s very approachable and easy reading There are a lot of anecdotes, asides about history, culture, and social observations I appreciated Peter Schwartz s keen powers of observation.That said, the writing style is mostly in the form of anecdotes, most of which will be confusing to readers who di [...]
I hate not finishing a book I ve only not finished three or four books in my life, this book really tested me to the end It s on the Navy recommended reading list so I pulled it down and took it for a spin Let me sum it up for you think of all possibilities and what you would do should those possibilities come to light Honestly, that s it Don t waste you time, move on There is a great deal of attempting to back up the art of looking forward and thinking of all possibilities with data but honestl [...]
The book is one of the classics in the strageic scenario planning technique as a effective way of strategic planing than the traditional fixed way of seeing only one future state work towards it.It talks about the origin of the subject the first projects that had successfully used this planing tool The books lays the foundations of this field of knowledge in a really good way, with an easy to understand language away from any embegouty The process he describes is a bit old after this years All [...]
This book is a must for anyone who needs the understanding of what the long hard hours are leading to at the end of the day Once you have dedicated yourself to your craft you can appreciate the ideas the Peter Schwatrz presents in The Art of the Long View His explanation of deliberate practice is a keen insight on how to focus and make the most of the fruits of a punishing workload For those who are disciplined and or fortunate enough not to have gone through the labor of deliberate practice rea [...]
Somewhat dated, but usable.
A must read for anyone involved in strategy, projections, or forecasting.
The Art Of The Long View Planning For The Future In An Uncertain World Paperback by Peter Schwartz Includes discussion guides end notes bibliography.
A bit too redundant and being nearly 27 years old also made it a challenging read This could have been a 20 page white paper or a great HBR article with the same data The guy loves what he does and writes like it in a long winded fashion I would think someone with a career in business would be succinct.
An interesting primer to strategic thinking by the Scenario Method I enjoyed its simplicity, but wished it had not beend so simplistic As I read, I hungrily looked for a complete example of decision making that would open a new window for me For example, the author builds three futuristic scenarios for the world for the year 2005 but, at the end of it, does not mention leave alone explain what decisions are influenced by such an exercise.I also tried relating it to strategic decision making for [...]
The Art of the Long View is one of the best books I ve read about foresight The publication contains many valuable examples of business use of foresight with particular emphasis on the scenario method What can you learn from a book First of all, the publication opens your eyes to the possibilities offered by foresight in every area of life Second, the author puts emphasis on business applications convincing about the need and possibilities of foresight for both corporations and small businesses [...]
Foundational text on scenario planningPeter Schwartz evidences charming honesty and humility about his experiences building scenarios He learned from his failures, so he includes them, as well as his rather impressive successes Schwartz emphasizes that scenario planning is not the same thing as predicting the future and that complete accuracy is not the goal Yet, it is still striking how accurately his 1991 scenarios played out He may have missed a few specific events and trends but, if you d ba [...]
Peter Schwartz is an experienced futurist who had done scenario planning for companies such as Shell He is the co founder of Global Business Network, a consultancy for stategic scenario planning This book is about his experience in and views of using scenarios to help companies prepare strategically for an uncertain future The idea is to use easily grasped stories to help companies decide whether their decisions can make sense in different possible futures, and to even consider alternative futur [...]
I m not really sure what the purpose of this book is It seems to basically boil down to you should consider a few different possible futures before making decisions and you should be prepared for futures that are different from what you expect While this sort of thinking is certainly useful, the book doesn t really add a whole lot than that It covers some basic strategies and concepts for structuring potential future scenarios , but for the most part it reads like a long advertisement for the [...]
This book focused on scenario planning used as a tool largely in MNCs for long term strategic planning and decision making It is a tool to predict the future based on the foreseeable trends While some content in the book may be dated, the scenario planning methodologies and experiences shared by the author are ever relevant although I wouldn t treat them as the only ways to gaze the future.More importantly is to have an adaptable, flexible, and inquisitive mind Read widely and be intently observ [...]
Managers and planners should think of scenarios and then make plans when thinking of the long term future Generally what if everything gets better, what if it stays the same and what if it gets so much worse Then they should analyze what signals or events will help them recognize which scenario is happening will happen Why I started this book It s on the Navy s Professional Reading list.Why I finished it Force of will This is an interesting idea but it needed an editor and an update The original [...]
Probably one of the books that influenced me most An extraordinarily generative way to learn from the future It was part of the secret of why the South African transition to democracy was successful as it was used to make the parties get realistic about the possible futures facing South Africa But it is also a dramatically useful business tool for dealing with the unforeseeable future by trying to capture the possible scenarios that might unfold and finding ways to be ready or at least aware of [...]
I really did not expect to like this book as much as I did, but I feel ilke it gets me It really discusses who I try to bea person who is constantly trying to stay on top of everything, and understand how the future may lay out that I may create stories within that future whether on a small or large scale It explains my draw to book stores, and asking too many questions of people I just meet, among other things I think it is an excellent book, and offers a lot of insight into humanity and the im [...]
use scenario method to think about and plan for future possibilitiesbuilding blocks of scenario are society, technology, economics,politics, and environment3 types of same, worse , different better with profound social changesproblem of denial may not be able to contemplate so use scenario stories with figures3 broad perspectives optimists, pessimists and status quo seekerslook at broad picture and specific areas of concern global and localconduct wide research include fringe ideascreate a seri [...]
It presents a pretty interesting concept of how to plan and see things, but I found it a bit repetitive I also didnt like that the author was very arrogant He makes a claim that he predicted the fall of Russia and the CIA wouldnt listen to him The last few chapters talked about a concept of the teenager of the future that I found a bit unrealistic It is worth a read because it has interesting thoughts just dont take it for ground truth.
Read this because of Stewart Brand s The Clock of the Long Now , and because I thought it might be helpful if I changed my career at my company to something related to scenario planning and systems dynamics Not a hard book to read, but it s not readily apparent how something that seems a relatively simple process could have such a huge impact in various businesses Guess I need to see it in action sometime.
Really enjoyed this book the concept of scenarios, story telling new ideas for yourself and seeing them as myths of the future is something which really appeals to me I ended up writing my own story as I read it, how I saw myself both now and in the future I liked the idea of how there are plots in the world, which affect your individual story Interestingly this isn t a creative writing book, but a book about being entrepreneurial
Consider multiple scenarios for the future, focusing on uncertainties and what could make your assumptions fall through Practice mental preparation for alternate futures according to their likelihood, and push to encounter new ideas Scenario writing is a lot like screen writing, in devising plots and selling the ideas to those in charge Also entertaining for early nineties predictions about the coming generation.
At times disorganized and random, Peter Schwartz still wrote a compelling book about the requirement to stay relevant or die Written in the early nineties many of his 23 year old predictions never materialized, but still he foresaw the technology revolution that is still churning This book s points come to mind often when I m disengaged from my daily work routine, on a long jot or drive Therefore, I liked it and will keep it on my shelf for reference in the years to come.
Interesting approach to thinking strategically about the future do tons of research about trends that affect your business, and from those trends, create scenarios about possible alternative futures then imagine how various strategic decisions would play out in these scenarios I would love to be part of an organization that went through the process he outlines It would be fascinating
I found this one interesting specifically for the predictions in it that actually came true It is somewhat disconcerting to see predictions in an old book come to reality I found the content interesting and insightful Hopefully I can put the recommendations into practice.
I read this book multiple times in the mid 90s Brilliant, forward thinking concepts for pushing one s thinking into new roads especially appropriate for risk management, but also opportunity identification.